Bitcoin (BTC) managed to stay above $27,000 for the past three days but its 9% loss last week spooked some newbie traders. Glassnode data shows that short-term holders, who acquired Bitcoin less than 155 days ago, have been moving coins to the exchanges at a loss since April 16.
While short-term traders are panicking and focusing on the $25,000 level on the downside, some analysts are turning bullish for the next year. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jamie Douglas Coutts expects Bitcoin to reach $50,000 by April 2024.
Another bullish voice was that of Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick who said that the “crypto winter” may be over. He projected that Bitcoin could skyrocket to $100,000 by end-2024.
What are the important support levels where the latest leg of the correction may attract buyers? Let’s study the charts of Bitcoin and altcoins to find out.
S&P 500 index price analysis
The S&P 500 index (SPX) has pulled back to the 20-day exponential moving average (4,098), indicating that the bears are selling the rallies near 4,200.
A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to slip below the 20-day EMA. That improves the prospects of a break above 4,200. If that happens, the index may rally to 4,300. This level may witness aggressive selling by the bears.
The first level of support on the downside is the 20-day EMA. If it cracks, the index may slip to the 50-day simple moving average (4,034) and thereafter to the uptrend line of the ascending triangle pattern.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The failure of the bulls to push the U.S. dollar index (DXY) above the 20-day EMA (102) in the past few days seems to have emboldened the bears who are trying to gain control.
The index could retest 100.82 which is an important level to keep an eye on. If this support breaks down, the index will complete a bearish head and shoulders pattern. This setup may start the next leg of the downtrend toward 97.50.
On the contrary, if the price once again rebounds off 100.82, it will suggest that the bulls are protecting this level with all their might. A break and close above the 20-day EMA will suggest that the index may oscillate between 100.82 and 106 for some time.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin is stuck between the moving averages for the past few days, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. The bulls are buying the dips to the 50-day SMA ($27,078) while the bears are protecting the 20-day EMA ($28,466).
This uncertainty is unlikely to continue for long. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate advantage to the bears. This increases the likelihood of a break below the 50-day SMA.
The BTC/USDT pair may then plunge to the important support at $25,250. The bulls are expected to defend this level with all their might.
On the upside, a break and close above the 20-day EMA will suggest that the bulls are attempting a comeback. The index may then attempt a rally to $31,000.
Ether price analysis
The bulls successfully held Ether’s pullback at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,846 but they failed to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($1,913).
The bears will try to strengthen their position further by pulling the price below the 50-day SMA ($1,799). If they do that, the ETH/USDT pair could extend its decline to the 61.8% retracement level of $1,663.
Contrarily, a strong rebound off the 50-day SMA or the 50% retracement level of $1,754 will suggest solid buying at lower levels. A break and close above the 20-day EMA will tilt the advantage in favor of the bulls. The pair may then rise to $2,000 and later to $2,200.
BNB price analysis
The bulls are trying to push BNB (BNB) above the overhead resistance at $338 but the bears are holding their ground.
If bulls fail to clear the overhead hurdle, the bears will again attempt to sink the BNB/USDT pair below the 50-day SMA ($316). If they manage to do that, the pair may drop to $300. This level may act as a minor support but if it also cracks, the next stop could be $280.
On the upside, the bulls will have to thrust the price above the $338 to $346 resistance zone to seize control. There is a minor resistance at $360 but that is likely to be crossed. The pair could then soar to $400.
XRP price analysis
The bulls defended the 50-day SMA ($0.45) on April 22 and tried to thrust XRP (XRP) above the 20-day EMA ($0.48) on April 24 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are active at higher levels.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears have the upper hand. If the 50-day SMA gives way, the XRP/USDT pair could plummet to $0.43. This is an important level to watch for because if it cracks, the pair may extend its decline to $0.36.
If bulls want to prevent a decline, they will have to quickly propel the price back above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rise to the resistance line where the bears may again mount a strong defense. If this barrier is overcome, the pair may rally to $0.56.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been trading between the moving averages for the past few days. This suggests uncertainty regarding the next directional move.
The 20-day EMA ($0.40) has started to turn down and the RSI is near 45, indicating that the bears are trying to gain the upper hand. If the 50-day SMA ($0.37) support crumbles, the ADA/USDT pair may descend to $0.33 and then to $0.30.
Alternatively, if the price turns up from the 50-day SMA and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls have overpowered the bears. The pair will then again try to rally above the neckline and retest the resistance near $0.46.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) remains in a firm bear grip in the near term as every attempt to rally is being met with selling by the bears.
The MATIC/USDT pair could next fall to $0.94 which is likely to act as a strong support. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, the buyers will make one more attempt to push the pair above the moving averages.
If they are successful, the pair may reach the resistance line. Buyers will have to kick the price above this level to start a potential recovery to $1.30.
Another possibility is that the price plunges below the $0.94 support. In that case, the pair will clear the path for a likely fall toward $0.69.
Dogecoin price analysis
The bulls are trying to defend the support near $0.08 but the shallow bounce in Dogecoin (DOGE) shows that demand dries up at higher levels.
The 20-day EMA ($0.08) has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative zone, indicating that bears have a slight edge. If the price crumbles below the $0.08 support, the DOGE/USDT pair may decline further to the next major support at $0.07.
This negative view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA. The pair may then rise to $0.10 and subsequently to $0.11. The bears are likely to guard this level with vigor.
Solana price analysis
The bulls are trying to protect the 50-day SMA ($21.26) but the bears have kept up the pressure and not allowed Solana (SOL) to sustain above the 20-day EMA ($22.30).
If the 50-day SMA support collapses, the SOL/USDT pair could dump to $18.70. The bulls will try to defend this level but if they fail, the pair may continue its downward move toward the vital support at $15.28.
Conversely, if the price turns up and rallies above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are trying to flip the downtrend line into support. The pair may then attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $27.12.
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