Gold price in India swings into discount after strong surge

Gold price in India flipped into discount this week after festival buying came off. Dealers offered a discount of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices this week, down from last week’s premium of $1.5, news agency Reuters reported. Dhanteras and Diwali was celebrated earlier this month when buying gold is considered auspicious.

Gold rates in India include 10.75% import duty and 3% GST. In India, demand usually moderates after Diwali and higher prices also weighed on demand, dealers said.  In futures market on MCX, gold edged up 0.26% to near nine-month high of 49346 per 10 gram on Friday while silver rose 0.27% to 67,148.

Gold rates in India have surged nearly 2,000 per 10 gram from the start of this month, tracking global rates. 

In global markets, gold rose to near $1,866.87 per ounce on Friday, posting a strong weekly gain. Gold has gained as much as $110 since November 3, supported by fears of inflation and reassurances from key central banks that interest rates would remain low for the time being.

The price surge in gold came despite a stronger US dollar. A stronger US currency typically dampens demand for bullion among buyers holding other currencies. 

Meanwhile, analysts at Societe Generale forecast gold prices to average $1,950 an ounce in the first quarter of 2022, given the “renewed commitment from the Federal Reserve to support the economy while letting inflation printing higher.” Lower interest rates support gold as it decreases the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest.

“Fed and other central banks have so far maintained that inflation is due to transitory factors. But this may not continue for long however with price pressure showing no signs of abating, central banks may consider altering their stance. Gold may witness choppy trade as is counters reduced risk appetite against increased expectations of central bank action. We may however see some correction if US dollar and yields continue to hold strong,” Kotak Securities said in a note. 

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